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Liz Bossley Consilience Energy Advisory Group Ltd

 
After the soaring hopes and crashing disappointment that was the Copenhagen conference last December, climate negotiators are keen to play down expectations for the Cancun COP 17 climate conference starting at the end of November this year. The countdown has begun and when it reaches zero the Kyoto Protocol blows up...

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Politicians Down Under seem to be blowing hot and cold on carbon and have put the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme for at least three years. The various press articles that have covered the announcement by the Prime Minister on the 28th April seem to be poorly informed...

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There is much talk at the moment about the two track negotiating process – the UNFCCC COPs, which are perceived to be failing, and the Major Economies Forum (MEF), which was largely responsible for the Copenhagen Accord, such as it is. This is shaping up to be an ‘either/or’ issue. In reality we need both...

 

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The 11th ad hoc working group (AWG) on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol / 9th session of AWG on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention takes place in Bonn 9-11 April. This will be the first meeting since countries responded to the Copenhagen Accord by pledging, by the deadline of 31st January 2010, cuts in emissions for the post 2012 period. It’s time to establish exactly what the pledges made in response to the Copenhagen Accord really mean.

 

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Caveat Emptor –there’s an elephant in the room!

Wearing my trader’s hat I have a certain sneaky respect for the Hungarian government official who spotted the loophole in the registries regulation and sold recycled CERs into the market. Wearing my ‘supporter of cap-and-trade’ hat I could cheerfully ring that same person’s neck. This latest emissions trading debacle is a complication that the market did not need at a time when confidence in the Kyoto Protocol is already at a very low ebb.

 

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‘Europe was playing ‘snap’ while the US and China were playing poker’. To read Liz Bossley’s analysis of the Copenhagen meeting please see here...

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Although Copenhagen looks like a bit of a shambles, the universe is unfolding as it should. The US was never going to go further in promising absolute cuts than the Waxman/ Markey bill supports. China and India were never going to agree to absolute caps, but will probably go along with intensity caps to show willing. We understand that Russia is doing the dance of the seven veils with their hot air surplus: they may retire some, but definitely not all, of it or maybe not depending on whom you speak to...

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So the much heralded Copenhagen meeting is at last underway. The new snappy term 'climategate' has been coined to give the believers in the 'great global warming swindle' some good sound bites in the press war that is about to play out over the next two weeks. Which side will annex 'something is rotten in the State of Denmark' as their headline grabber, I wonder?...

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The Consilience Climate Change Book

SPECIAL OFFER
 
The third edition of our new 400 page book ‘Climate Change and Emissions Trading: What Every Business Needs to Know.’ For immediate delivery or PDF download at the special offer price of £49.99 plus postage and packaging click here.
 

 

SPECIAL OFFER
 
The third edition of our new 400 page book ‘Climate Change and Emissions Trading: What Every Business Needs to Know.’ For immediate delivery or PDF download at the special offer price of £49.99 plus postage and packaging click here.
 

 

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